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Daily Election Report: Monday, March 12, 2018 – DCCC Gets Involved In Yet Another Primary

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Story Of The Day:

Illinois’ 3rd: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is trying to rig another primary election. The DCCC decided to endorse 7-term incumbent Congressman Dan Lipinski (in the picture above), a pro-life Blue Dog Democrat, over his far-left challenger Marie Newman, who has been supported by several Democrats in Congress.

Far-left liberals will be pissed at the Democratic establishment, especially considering the fact that Hillary Clinton won this district pretty easily – 55%-40%.

PA-18 Preview:

Republican Congressman Tim Murphy resigned in disgrace, leading to a special election on Tuesday between Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone and Dem former prosecutor Conor Lamb for Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. The district is in the Pittsburgh suburbs of southwestern Pennsylvania. It covers most of Washington, Westmoreland, and Greene Counties while covering the southern tip of Allegheny.

The polls show that the race is a toss-up as all of the polls are within the margin of victory.

The experts say the race is a toss-up, but RWD continues to disagree. We believe that Saccone will win and exceed expectations. He might even win by double-digits.

One reason is that this is a blue-collar district, and polls in 2016 missed the white, working-class wave for Trump in the Midwest. The polls totally missed Trump’s ability to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

In addition, there is a lot of uncertainty. Trump finally proposed some serious tariffs in recent weeks, and Saccone supports it.

Trump won this seat by 20 points and Romney won it by 17 points. The PVI is R+11.

Conor Lamb is running as a moderate who opposes Nancy Pelosi, but the optics of the GOP losing this seat could be pretty bad anyway. Democrats could try to impeach President Trump if they take back control of the House.

Senate Elections:

California: The filing deadline passed, and no major Republican candidate stepped forward. This means that the 2018 Senate election will likely feature two Democrats, like the 2016 race between Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez. In this scenario, incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein would face far-left state Senator Kevin De Leon, unless if the GOP can coalesce behind one of the no-name candidates. If the November ballot features two Democrats and zero Republicans, that’s potentially bad news for the GOP in down ballot races, especially the ones in swing districts who need high turnout.

Florida: A March Clearview Research poll showed Republican Rick Scott leading Democrat Bill Nelson 43%-41%, within the margin of error.

House Elections:

NJ’s 7th: The Democratic Party bosses have rallied behind former Obama admin. diplomat Tom Malinowski. Incumbent Republican Congressman Leonard Lance is pretty popular, but he sits in a Romney-Clinton swing district that Hillary Clinton won by one percentage point, 49%-48%.

Texas’ 7th: Bernie Sanders ripped the DCCC for getting involved in the primary and dropping oppo research on Laura Moser.

Virginia’s 2nd: The ATF is currently investigating teacher Karen Mallard, a Democrat, for potentially violating the law, the Sawed-Off Shotgun and Sawed-Off Rifle Act, by cutting apart an AR-15 rifle on a public Facebook video. Incumbent Republican Congressman Scott Taylor is sitting in a district both Trump and Romney won, so he should be fine.

 

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