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Daily Election Report: Thursday, March 8, 2018 – Senate Democrats Are In Trouble

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Senate Elections:

The Ten Democrats Who Represent States Trump Won: SurveyMonkey/Axios polled these ten states and turns out most of these Democrats are in bigger trouble than the experts thought. Here are the results:

  • Montana: Tester is losing to a generic Republican 55%-42% (which will surprise the experts, some of whom rate Tester as a slight favorite).
  • West Virginia: Manchin is losing to a generic Republican 52%-43% (Trump has a 65% approval rating, the highest among these states).
  • Missouri: McCaskill is losing to Hawley 52%-44%.
  • Indiana: Donnelly is losing to a generic Republican 51%-45%.
  • North Dakota: Heitkamp is losing to a generic Republican 49%-47% (Trump has 60% approval rating, the second highest among these states).
  • Wisconsin: Baldwin is leading a generic Republican 49%-46%.
  • Michigan: Stabenow is leading a generic Republican 49%-45% (will surprise the experts who say she’s safe).
  • Ohio: Brown is leading U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci 50%-45% (Trump’s approval is 54%, surprisingly high).
  • Pennsylvania: Casey Jr. is leading U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta 52%-43% (this will change because Barletta is an A+ recruit and will raise a lot of money).
  • Florida: Nelson is leading Scott 53%-43% (which is likely wrong because all of the other polls show a toss-up).

Mississippi (Special): Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy, a Democrat who served under President Bill Clinton, will run for the special election vacated by Senator Thad Cochran. Espy was also a four-term congressman elected in 1986, 1988, 1990, and 1992. In 1997, he was indicted for corruption, but was acquitted. If he faces a challenger in the primary, he could lose because he once endorsed a Republican – Haley Barbour for governor in 2007.

House Elections:

California’s 50th: Incumbent Republican Duncan Hunter, who is currently under FBI investigation, has a new GOP primary opponent – former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio. He ran for Congress in 2014 in the 52nd district, losing narrowly to incumbent Democrat Scott Peters 52%-48%. The openly gay Republican also ran for mayor and lost to Democrat Bob Filner 53%-47%. He’ll join El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells and San Diego Sheriff’s Deputy Andrew Zelt in the primary.

Iowa’s 2nd: Republicans finally recruited a candidate – businesswoman Ginny Caligiuri – to challenge incumbent Democrat Dave Loebsack, who is one of only 11 sitting Democrats who represent districts that Donald Trump won. Trump won this district 49%-45%, while Obama won the district 56%-43%. Caligiuri is a former vice president of a bank and she’s an Evangelical Christian activist.

New Jersey’s 2nd: Former Republican state Assemblyman Sam Fiocchi announced he’s running for this seat and is likely the front-runner based on his experience and name recognition. He joins businessman Hirsh Singh, Somers Point Councilman Jim Toto, attorney John Zarych, engineer Brian Fitzherbert, and attorney Seth Grossman in the GOP primary. Fiocchi is only a one-term legislator who narrowly lost re-election to Democrat Bruce Land. He previously ran and narrowly lost in 2011. He’s also a former Cumberland County Freeholder. It’s not fantastic, but it’s a better resume than his primary competitors. He’ll need to raise a lot of money to win here because it’s in the expensive Philadelphia media market and his opponent is popular state Senator Jeff Van Drew.

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