Missouri: President Trump has endorsed Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley for the U.S. Senate election against Dem incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill and will hold a high dollar fundraiser for him in mid-March in St. Louis. This race is a tossup for now, but Hawley should defeat her with ads exposing her liberal record.
Wyoming: David Dodson, a wealthy entrepreneur, is launching an independent campaign against incumbent Republican Senator John Barrasso. He plans to spend over a $1 million. Safe Republican.
Kansas’ 3rd: Incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder is in serious trouble in this Romney-Clinton district. A Public Policy Polling survey found him losing to labor attorney Brent Welder 49%-42%. They found that Trump’s approval rating was 41%, even though he received 46% of the vote in the election. Yoder’s own internal poll last month found Trump’s approval at 40%. I’m changing the rating to Leans Dem.
Michigan’s 11th: Former Dem U.S. Senator Carl Levin has endorsed state Rep. Tim Greimel in the Democratic primary race for the open seat of Republican Congressman Dave Trott. Trump won this seat 50%-45%, while Romney won this seat 52%-47%. Likely Republican.
New York’s 21st: Democrats got a very strong recruit: former MSNBC host Dylan Ratigan, a far-left populist who has been highly critical of the Democratic Party. However, there are 8 other Democrats running for the seat. The incumbent is 33-year-old, Harvard-educated Rep. Elise Stefanik. This is a blue-collar Obama-Trump district that Trump won 54%-40%, while Obama won in 2012 52%-46%. This race is a tossup.
New York’s 22nd: Incumbent Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney made headlines by noting that “It’s interesting that so many of these people that commit the mass murders end up being Democrats.” She has made a number of controversial comments recently. Democrats have a strong recruit with Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi. Trump won this seat 55%-39%, but Romney narrowly won the seat 49.2%-48.8%. This race is now a tossup.
New York’s 27th: Former Erie County prosecutor and Army veteran Sean Bunny dropped out, leaving establishment favorite Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray as the overwhelming frontrunner. Trump won this district 60%-35%, while Romney won the seat 55%-43%. Safe Republican.
Pennsylvania’s (New) 10th: Scott Perry now represents a somewhat competitive district. Both Trump and Toomey won the 10th by double-digit margins, so he will only lose in a massive Dem wave. But Democrats might get an A+ recruit: Auditor General and former state Rep. Eugene DePasquale, who was the only Democrat running for statewide office in recent years to actually win the 10th. He 51%-49%. This race is Safe Republican, unless DePasquale runs.
Texas’ 7th: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has decided to publish negative information on Democratic congressional candidate Laura Moser, a Houston journalist, for being a “Washington insider” who carpetbagged into the district. Moser has raised a ton of money and has received endorsements from liberal actress Alyssa Milano and Bernie Sanders supporters. It’s a crowded primary with six other candidates. This district is a must win for the DCCC because it’s one of the few Clinton-Romney districts that is held by a Republican congressman. Lean Republican.