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Daily Election Report: Wednesday, February 21, 2018

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Senate:

Florida: A Gravis poll shows incumbent Senator Bill Nelson leading Republican Governor Rick Scott 44%-39% in a potential matchup. Scott still hasn’t made a decision. This race is a tossup.

Tennessee: Incumbent Senator Bob Corker will make a final decision by Friday. He’ll lose the Republican primary if he changes his mind and runs for re-election. This seat is now likely Republican.

Utah: Trump endorsed Romney on Twitter, which will help him win the Republican nomination.

House:

Pennsylvania Map: On Twitter, Trump encouraged Republicans to challenge the new map in federal court. That’s definitely a good idea because the new map hurts the Republican Party. But even if this map stays, it won’t hurt the GOP that much.

California’s 50th: Incumbent Congressman Duncan Hunter, who is currently under FBI investigation, is in serious trouble. He has now drawn a credible Republican challenge from El Cajon (Population: 100,000) Mayor Bill Wells. Likely Republican.

Florida’s 17th: Five-term GOP Congressman Tom Rooney has decided to retire. Trump carried the district by over 30 points. Safe Republican.

Michigan’s 13th: Westland Mayor Bill Wild has joined the extremely crowded field to replace Congressman John Conyers. Safe Dem.

North Dakota’s At-Large: State Senator Kelly Armstrong is now joining fellow Senator Tom Campbell in the Republican primary for this open seat. Safe Republican.

Texas’ 2nd: GOP donor Kathleen Wall, who has been endorsed by Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz, released an anti-illegal immigration ad. She has donated over $2 million to herself for this race. Trump won this seat by a modest 11 points, 52%-43%. However, in the previous four presidential elections, every Republican nominee cracked 60% of the vote in this Houston-based district. Safe Republican.

Texas’ 29th: Senator Chuck Schumer endorsed donor and healthcare executive Tahir Javed, even though most of the Democratic Party establishment endorsed State. Senator Sylvia Garcia‘s bid for the seat. Javed would be the first Asian-American from Texas to serve in Congress. Safe Dem.

Virginia’s 5th: The left-wing Daily Kos is really pissed off that the Virginia Democratic Party decided to keep the convention, instead of holding a primary election for the nomination. incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Garrett should be fine. Trump won this seat by 11 points and Romney won it by 7 points. Safe Republican.

 

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