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Daily Election Report: February 12, 2018

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Welcome to the first “Morning Daily Election Report.” Each day I will give a summary of the top election stories of the day. It’s similar to the right-wing Red Racing Horses and the left-wing Daily Kos Elections.

The difference us and those two websites is that we will cover only Senate, House elections, and presidential.


Senate Elections:

North Dakota: CNN’s K-File team unearthed a highly irresponsible Facebook post by Gary Emineth, a former North Dakota GOP chair, who shared a story on Facebook in 2014 about anti-Israel protesters with the comment “Bunch of Arabs… what do you expect?” He also called Obama a POS in a tweet. He took them down and confirmed the two posts saying: “Yes I did take down a few tweets, obviously when, as a citizen, you see articles and opinions that frustrate a person, comments are made that may not always be appropriate.”

The only other Republican candidate in the race is State Senator Tom Campbell. Whoever wins the primary will face Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, who voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. She also opposed the release of the Nunes Memo. Trump won the state 63%-27%, a 36-point margin of victory.

I rate the race as a tossup right now because it’s too early. But I expect her poll numbers to collapse once the ads come in. This is a must-win for Republicans.

New Mexico: The filing deadline passed and the only Republican candidate to file was businessman Mick Rich of Albuquerque, which means he is the nominee. State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn Jr. is the Libertarian Party nominee even though he ran and he was a registered Republican for when first elected. Incumbent Dem Senator Martin Heinrich is running for re-election to a second term. In 2012, he defeated former Congresswoman Heather Wilson 51% to 45% in a highly competitive, highly expensive race.

Virginia: Former Governor Jim Gilmore is definitely not running. That means that the GOP primary will be between State Delegate Nick Freitas, Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, and 2013 LG nominee EW Jackson. Hillary Clinton’s running mate Tim Kaine is the incumbent.


House Elections:

Minnesota’s Eighth: **HUGE PICKUP OPPORTUNITY** Dem Congressman Rick Nolan announced he would not seek a fourth term. This is an Obama-Trump district. Trump won this seat 54%-39%, a 16-point margin, while Obama beat Romney 52%-46% and McCain 53%-46%. Former cop and St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber is the only Republican currently running.

Florida’s 6th: St. Johns County Commissioner Jimmy Johns, no relation to the sandwich maker, is joining the Republican primary to challenge State Rep. Fred Costello and Afghanistan Army veteran Michael Waltz (who led the search for Bowe Bergdahl) as major candidates for the race. Clinton-era National Security Council official Nancy Soderberg is the only major candidate in the race for Dems.

Florida’s 8th: Brevard County Dem chair Sanjay Patel will run for Congress against incumbent Republican Bill Posey. It’s Posey’s first serious challenger in years, but Trump won this district 58%-38% while Romney won here 57%-42%.

Michigan’s 13th: Former State Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who would be the first Muslim woman in Congress if elected, has joined the extremely crowded Democratic primary field to replace corrupt Congressman John Conyers. Tlaib joins John Conyers III (D), State Senator Ian Conyers, State Senator Coleman Young Jr, State Rep. Sherry Gay-Dagogno, and former State Rep. Shanelle Jackson.

 

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